Major Banks Signal End of Rate Cuts as Unemployment Drops
Major Banks Signal End of Rate Cuts as Unemployment Drops
Australia’s interest rate outlook has taken another turn, with National Australia Bank (NAB) announcing it no longer expects any further rate cuts in the current cycle. NAB now forecasts the RBA cash rate to remain at 3.6% for an extended period, following a surprise fall in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in October.
The updated forecast aligns with recent expectations from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), which also anticipates rates remaining on hold through 2026. Both majors cite stronger labour market data, an improving economic outlook, rising investor lending, and continued pressure from house price growth.
While ANZ still expects one final rate cut early next year, the broader trend suggests the easing cycle is nearing completion. Westpac economists have also indicated the labour market is softening gradually rather than weakening sharply, reducing the need for further monetary support.
For Western Australian borrowers, this points to a period of rate stability rather than further reductions. With Perth’s strong property market continuing into late 2025, now is an ideal time to review your lending structure and ensure your strategy is aligned with the RBA’s longer-term direction.
The RBA will deliver its final interest rate decision for the year on December 9, following its Monetary Policy Board meeting on December 8–9.